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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd